Entries from June 2025

A Note on Technological Inevitability

If you traveled back to 1950, and told people that in 75 years we would be struggling to shut down coal plants and still used petrol in most cars, they would not have believed you. The future was atomic-powered, after all.

If you traveled back to 1975 and told people that in 50 years Concorde would be long retired with no replacement and that commercial supersonic transport no longer existed, they would not have believed you.

If you traveled back to 2000, and told undergrad Eiki that in 25 years nanotech would seem like a fad despite all of academia shoving the prefix "nano" into their grant proposals and that the nanoscale assembler would still not exist 25 years later, I would not have believed you. I might have been relieved but I would have been skeptical.

If you traveled back to 2015 and told optimistic 37-year old Eiki that in ten years fully automated self-driving would still be mostly a tech demo unseen outside of the Bay area and a handful of other places, that very few people would ever have been driven by a car operating on its own, and that basically no one that drives for a living would yet be disemployed by self-driving vehicles, I would not have believed you.

Be careful when you declare the adoption of some technology to be inevitable or just-around-the-corner.

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